With the start of every New Year the fashionistas weigh-in with their predictions for the latest and greatest jewellery styles for the coming year. And while trends come and go, one constant remains; gold never goes out of style.
Indeed, many suggest gold is set for a stellar few years, as there’s a move back to quality, custom-made pieces. The fashion experts are suggesting that one of the major trends to watch for 2019 is layered gold chain. Technically not a new trend, they were revived in a big way last year and that is expected to continue this year.
Wherever you looked in 2018, layering gold pieces were extremely popular, according to the fashion magazines, and an advantage of this trend is the ability to experiment it with a casual, street-style avatar, or make it part of a swanky party ensemble.
If you’re wanting to up your necklace game, the fashion gurus suggest mixing and matching styles and designs to create the perfect layered look.
Another prediction is for bold gold, chains and links that resemble a retro, 1980s statement. Oversized necklaces and bracelets will be the perfect statement accessories.
It’s about ‘go big or go home’ as tribal, traditional, floral, vintage styles with big and chunky bracelets, hoops, statement necklaces and rings were very popular in 2018. The bold gold trend is also encapsulated in large gold cuffs embedded with coloured stones paired with big gold hoops.
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Above: China generated the most growth in 2018 |
Another trend that’s not new, but is expected to maintain its popularity through 2019, is the sporting of two big non-matching gold earrings. The stylists say non-matching styles have developed a sharper edge, especially given they were a major feature of the new season runways.
Other predictions include neo Victorian, Edwardian and Georgian style gold jewellery including ‘antique’ designs.
While the forecasts of the fashionistas could be music to the ears of retailers, what should be better news is the latest World Gold Council (WGC) report: Outlook 2019: Economic trends and their impact on gold. It states the international demand for gold jewellery fell slightly in 2018, over the previous year and total global gold demand in 2018 was 2,200 tonnes, a 0.04% decline from 2017.
However, the WGC predicts gold will shine better in 2019 due to global financial market instability, monetary policy, the US dollar and structural economic reforms.
“Annual jewellery demand barely changed at 2,200 tonnes, after a 3 per cent year-on-year drop in Q4 demand (to 636.2t) reversed the Q3 gains. China was the main engine of growth in 2018, despite witnessing a slowdown in Q4 as the trade war with the US and slowing economic growth rate weighed on demand.
“Economic hardship, relatively weak currencies and the after effects of taxchanges affected Turkey and Middle Eastern markets to varying degrees: Iran and Turkey were hit particularly hard,” the reported stated.
It also noted that a second year of growth in the US pushed jewellery demand to its highest since 2009, although the pace slowed in Q4.
The agency, which tracks global trends in gold wholesale prices, predicts increased market uncertainty and the expansion of protectionist economic policies will make gold increasingly attractive as a hedge.
While gold may face headwinds from higher interest rates and US dollar strength, these effects are expected to be limited, as the US Federal Reserve has signaled a more neutral stance. Structural economic reforms in key markets will continue to support demand for gold in jewellery, technology and as means of savings.
The two largest gold jewellery markets were not surprisingly China and India, which accounted for nearly 60 per cent of global gold jewellery demand in 2018.
Another WGC report titled, Gold 2048: The Next 30 Years for Gold published last year, looked at overarching demographic, technological, economic, political, and social trends around the world and their implications for the gold market. It gathered leading gold industry experts as well as authors and economists to analyse the underlying macro forces that will drive gold sales and demand over the next 30 years.
It predicted demographics would play an increasingly important role in shaping the global economy. The rising middle class in emerging markets, particularly China and India will play a major influence in the gold market with estimates that, over the next 17 years, 170 million Asians will enter the middle class every year.
India, the largest consumer market for gold, is set to become the fastestgrowing economy in the coming decades. If Indian leaders manage to pull off their ambitious political and economic reforms, the country’s middle class could soar from 19 to 73 per cent of total population.
“Not only will the Indian middle class become a driving force within the Indian economy, but its aggregate purchasing power will result in the creation of one of the largest markets in the world,” the report states.
China’s middle class, too, is rapidly expanding, however, unlike India, the Chinese are facing major demographic headwinds. A key challenge for China is an aging population, which might curb economic growth despite the gains from the expanding middle class.
According to WGC head of research, John Reade: “In the near term, Indian gold demand will increase substantially if the government is successful in its ambition to dramatically increase rural income.”
There is also a lot of potential for recycling some of the about 25,000-tonne stock of gold already in India and that may reduce the need for the country to import ever-growing quantities of gold, while the WGC expects the domestic jewellery trade to become much more organised, with consolidated jewellery manufacturers selling a range of modern and traditional hallmarked pieces to increasingly urbanised and sophisticated consumers.
Reade made a number of observations about where the industry will stand in 2048:
- In China, traditional 24-carat gold jewellery will become much less common; 18-carat, 22-carat and modern 24-carat jewellery will predominate.
- Economic development in countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Cambodia is likely to drive gold demand in Southeast Asia.
- Greater efforts will be made by refineries, jewellery fabricators and vault holders to assure customers against environmental, unjust social practices and money laundering.
- The US will lose its position as the largest economy to China.
- WGC does not expect a substantial recovery in developed-market jewellery demand, as historic buyers of large amounts of jewellery are ageing. It believes younger market consumers prioritise experiences over the purchases of material goods, including jewellery.